PRLog (Press Release) – Jul 26, 2011 – In 2011, growth in Malaysian steel consumption will be determined by the implementation speeds of infrastructure projects under the Economic Transformation Programme, according to this latest Malaysia Metals Report from BMI. Although the outlook for the country's construction sector has improved over the last quarter due to a significant increase in government spending on infrastructure (thereby improving prospects for steel longs), growth in the construction sector is expected at a modest 1-2.5% per annum over the forecast period.
The const garbage compactor review ruction sector is vital to the recovery of the Malaysian steel market as it represents 71% of the country's steel consumption. Malaysia's construction sector registered a significantly high growth rate of more than 6% in 2008, but has since started to decline to around 4-5%. Through 2011 and beyond, BMI remains cautious about the prospects for M manual trash compactor alaysia's construction sector. We anticipate that a slowdown will kick in during H211, in line with a renewed slowdown in the broader economy.
-------------------------------------------------- ----------Full Report Details at - http://www.fastmr.com/prod/209757_malaysia_metals_report ... ------------------------------------------------------------
Although the economy grew by an impressive 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H110, we believe that a hard landing in China dented Malaysia's economic growth during the second half of 2010. We saw this start to happen, with Malaysia's Q310 real GDP growth slowing to 5.3% y-o-y. In 2011, we expect further moderation, with real GDP growth to come in at 4.9% in 2011 and 4.3% in 2012 respectively. Malaysia's economy is closely linked to China's (Malaysian exports to China account for 20% of Malaysia's GDP) and so it is highly probable that a Chinese slowdown will adversely affect the performance of Malaysia's export-driven economy (exports were expected t rc helicopter market place o account for 111.4% of GDP in 2010). This decline in exports is likely to place fresh strain on central government revenues, which, in turn, will constrain the government's ability to invest in infrastructure over the medium term.
Any slowdown will undermine Masteel's expectation that it will be able to increase its turnover from government contracts to 20-25% (from 15%) under the 10th Malaysia Plan. The government has allocated some MYR63bn to 52 large projects, compared with MYR33.1bn under the ninth plan. Output will also be encouraged by a rise in Masteel's production capacity from 450,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) to 500,000tpa.
Chinese steel demand, which is crucial to Malaysia's export markets, will hold up due to the ongoing processes of industrialisation and urbanisation, but the pace of growth will be slower over the medium term. However, the market is in danger of short-term saturation, with capacities growing at a faster rate than the market can absorb. While the Chinese government is starting to tackle the problem by ordering the closure of small blast furnaces, removing electricity subsidies and placing a moratorium on new projects, it may not be enough to deter over-capacity in 2011. This will drive down prices as well as demand for steel from ASEAN producers such as Malaysia.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Malaysia Political SWOT - Malaysia Economic SWOT - Malaysia Business Environment SWOT Global Market Overview - Steel Forecast - Steel to Average US$580/tonne In 2011 - BMI Steel Forecast - Steel Prices - Cost Push On The Supply Side - Few Supply Constraints In Sight, For Now Commodities Forecast - Commodity Strategy - Metals Update - Aluminium - Copper - Gold - Lead - Nickel - Tin - Zinc Regional Overview - Table: Top 10 Asian Steel Producers, 2009 Forecast Scenario - Table: Malaysia's Metal Industry ('000 tonnes unless stated), 2008-2015 - Macroeconomic Forecasts - Malaysia - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape - Table: Malaysia's Top Integrated Steel Companies - Trade Policy Company Profiles - Perwaja Steel - The Lion Group Global Assumptions, Q311 - Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 - Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) - Developed States - Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Emerging Markets - Table: Emerging Markets' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Consensus Forecasts - Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) Country Snapshot: Malaysia Demographic Data - Section 1: Population - Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 - Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 - Section 2: Education And Healthcare - Table: Education, 2000-2003 - Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 - Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power - Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 - Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) - Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Cross Checks
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